Apparently I have been told I’m one of those evil well poisoning devils. Fascinating. The logic is sound. Misdirected and misunderstood but basically sound. Let me explain why in the form of a story.
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Little Billy was a farm boy who lived in a small town. He was responsible for watching the fields in case anything came out of the nearby forest and tried to disrupt the livestock. In such an event the village had a strategy. When they heard Billy cry out that there was a Wolf or other predator, they would bring the livestock in bar all the doors and wait until the next morning hence protecting themselves from the predators.
Apparently for the last year, there had been an epidemic of wolves. Every couple of weeks or so just before night fell, Billy would cry out “Wolf! Wolf!” and come running out of the woods. The village would scramble to bring the livestock in and protect themselves from the dangerous creatures.
One day, investigative reporter Bob comes to town and stays amongst the villagers for a month. Twice while he was there he witnessed the odd Wolf Cry experience. On the second time he started to have his doubts.
You see, Bob had been to other villages surrounding the same forest and hadn’t heart anything about a Wolf Epidemic in the forest. In fact he’d talked to rangers who patrolled the forests who said that they wolf population was very small and easily managed. While there WAS a real chance a wolf might attack a village’s livestock, it was a slim one according to them.
After doing some more research into the village he discovered other things. There was a candy store in the village that had been experiencing an inordinate amount of theft lately. It seems their candy supplies would randomly decline and the owner had no idea what the cause was. He watched his store very carefully and the only time he ever had to leave was when he had to go out and help bring the livestock in during the wolf attacks.
Now Bob, being a good reporter decided he needed to learn more about Billy. So he looked through the village histories.
He soon discovered that Billy had been involved in two suspicious incidents. The first apparently three years ago when he had been visiting his grandmother. According to the accounts a burglar broke into his grandmother’s house. The story goes Billy courageously grabbed a shotgun and fired two bullets into the air which scared the burglar off. The only thing the burglar was able to grab before being scared off was a can of cookies Billy’s grandmother had baked the previous night. Of course this was all Billy’s account. Nobody else had seen the burglar though the gun shots were reported.
The second incident was just a year and a half ago. A fire broke out at Billy’s house in the kitchen. It was theorized that a spark accidentally struck some flammable material accidentally left in the kitchen. Billy caught the fire and informed authorities before the fire spread too far thankfully. That some of the candy and sweets Billy’s parents kept in the kitchen were consumed by the fire was considered a small price to pay since thankfully nobody was hurt all thanks to Billy’s quick judgment.
There were other vaguer rumours too. Amongst the kids of the village mostly. Rumours that Billy had claimed to have seen aliens. That he had claimed to have seen dark strangers roaming the village. That he had claimed to be able to shoot four cans with a single beeby from a beeby gun. And claims that he had a ritual that could cause it to rain. But of course none of these claims had ever been verified by eye witness.
Now Bob was really suspicious. So he started talking to people. He asked if anyone had seen any wolves. Nobody had except Billy. Billy was the most trusted villager who knew the forest better than anyone. Nobody else saw any need to risk themselves by going out in the forest.
So Bob tried to convince them to go out with Billy and watch for wolves, to look for evidence of these wolves. He tried also to convince the candy store owner to get somebody to watch over his store when the next wolf attack occurs. But nobody seemed to like Bob’s ideas.
Next thing you know, Bob was brought before the village council. Billy and much of the village was there. The head counselor spoke.
“It has come to my attention that you Bob, a visitor in our town have started to claim that the Wolf Attacks are not real. So we have gathered this council together to decide for once and for all the truth of that proposition.”
Not at all perturbed, Bob laid out his evidence and explained his suspicions to the council who listened intently. He told them everything he had discovered and in closing said.
“So from this I have concluded that you have little reason to trust the word of your citizen Billy. Certainly it is costly to do so. The Ranger service is imminently more trustworthy and they see no risk to your city. Therefore I argue that you should not take Billy’s word for it that there are wolves attacking the livestock.”
Next the high Council asked Billy to speak in his defense.
Billy was a great speaker for a kid. He was dynamic, he had all the rhetorical techniques down pact. He even cried when necessary taking advantage of the fact that he was young to provide empathy in the crowd. And he spoke not at all in answer to the claims that he had lied in the past.
Instead he presented his “evidence” for the wolf attacks. He said the forest was littered with paw prints. He described how several sheep had disappeared before Billy could round them up. He said he’d found the remains of some with wolf fur on the ground near it. He spoke of his expertise in exploring the woods. How he’d been in the woods often since a little kid and knew them better than anyone.
He then argued that the Ranger service was a bunch of outsiders. He said they had no knowledge of the village like he did and that they probably were out to get the village. He said most of them were from other competing villages so of course they would have every incentive to trick the village into being unprepared for a wolf attack. He told the council that although he wasn’t accusing anyone, for all the knew Bob could be a spy from another village too.
Bob couldn’t believe his ears. He thought Billy was being utterly absurd, but playing along he decided to challenge Billy anyway.
“Has anyone besides you even SEEN one of these paw prints? Or this fur?”
But that was a mistake. Billy brought forward witnesses who testified that they had seen it and that the prints and fur looked real to them.
“But none of you ever saw a wolf right?”
“No” They all responded.
Billy chimed in: “But you can’t deny that they saw EVIDENCE of a Wolf!”
“But how do you know Billy didn’t fabricate that evidence. It’s not hard to fake paw prints and maybe he got a hold of some fur that looked like wolf’s fur?”
Billy then sneered at Bob and put as much disgust in his voice as he could.
“Listen to this guy! He’s willing to stop at NOTHING to convice us that the Wolf attacks aren’t real! He doesn’t trust your word. He’s calling you all liars just like he’s been calling ME a liar all day! How dare he! An outsider! And notice he provides NO evidence that the Wolf attacks aren’t real. All he can do is attack the character of our good town. I emplore you high council, let’s get rid of this dangerous fanatic before he destroys our town!”
Bob was flaberghasted and speechless.
“But… but… but…”
The High Councilor was known as a wise man. He banged his gavel stopping the exchange. Bob was still confident that in spite of the disapproving looks he was getting from the crown the logical High Council would see logic and reason. Little did poor Bob know, it was so-called logic that would be his undoing.
After some deliberation The High Councilor finally spoke:
“We have analyzed your arguments Mr. Bob and we have decided that you have provided very limited evidence in support of the claim that it is impossible for Wolves to be regularly attacking our village. Rather you have commited a fallacy called ‘Poisoning the Well’. That means insteadd of disproving citizen Billy’s claim of Wolf Attacks all you have done is tried to prejudice this Village against one of its own citizens so we don’t believe anything he says. That’s an ad hominem attack and has no logical value. Therefore you have failed to make your case and the village will continue on as it has been protecting our livestock whenever we get advanced warning of wolf attacks from Billy.”
Bob was livid.
“But your honors! Can’t you see? He’s lied to you in the past! He has ulterior motives! I’m not saying the wolf attacks aren’t happening, I’m saying you have to have some fucking evidence of that! Billy is an untrustworthy source. So send some reliable people out there to watch for wolves with him! Have some people watch teh candy store for Christ sake!”
But the High Council was stern and would have none of it.
“You will be silent! Billy has produced evidence. You have produced none. You continue to attack the credability of a good citizen while failing to answer the claimss put forth! If you will not shut up I fear we will have no choice but to exile you from the village.”
“No way! Aren’t you listening to me? He’s untrustworthy I tell you! You have to listen to me! Examine his record. Look at what he’s done!”
“That’s it! We’ll hear no more of your logical fallacies! Take him away!”
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And so ends my little story. What happened next you wonder? Who knows. But my guess is that within ten years little Billy will have declared himself king of that small deluded little city and be uncontested military dictator unless someone is lucky enough to stumble upon conclusive evidence of his deceptive practices. Which given Bob’s failure seems highly unlikely.
Can you tell what went wrong? Why was the council convinced? SHOULD they have been convinced? Was Bob really committing a poisoning the well fallacy?
Have fun thinking about it.