October 5, 2009

• well actually it’s 111,490 White Females Raped…

  Not to mention 36,620 Black Females Raped. And that’s just cases in the US where there’s only a single offender.  And it’s only the cases where the person reported their own race as “White Only” or “Black Only”. It doesn’t include mixed races or other races.

  Sometimes people have a weird way of looking at statistics and missing the forest for the trees. They see part of the issue but miss other substantially interesting parts of the discussion.

  A lot of you are probably wondering what I’m talking about. So let me start from the beginning.

  There’s been a recent discussion across Xanga and on some other forums and web sites about these U.S. Department of Justice Criminal Victimization statistics for the year of 2005:  http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus0502.pdf

  The point of interest to the people raising this discussion is “Table 42: Personal crimes of violence, 2005″ on page 30.

  For those two lazy to look it up, (just as I’m too lazy to create screen captures) the numbers it shows are roughly as follows:
  Rape/Sexual assault/a Single Offender Victims:
  White Only:  111,490
  Black Only:    36,620

  Percentage of those White Only Victims who reported the perceived race of the Offender as:
  White: 44.5%  roughly 49,613
  Black: 33.6%   roughly 37,460
  Other: 19.6%*   roughly 21,852
  Unknown: 2.3%*  roughly 2,564

  Percentage of those Black Only Victims who reported the perceived race of the Offender as:
  White: 0.0%*
  Black: 100.0%

  The *’s reflect cases where the estimate was made based on Estimate is based on about 10 or fewer sample cases.

  The “/a” in the table above specifies that included in the study are “verbal threats of rape and threats of sexual assault.”  Nowhere in the report does it provide a breakdown. I use the term “rape” above and below as short hand for rape or sexual assault or threats of either.

  Although the statistics in this table don’t specify gender, please excuse my use of the term “females” and “women” and “men” above and in the discussion that follows. I do so because, for one, it’s the language used by the others who have been discussing this issue, and secondly because in said study as we can see in table 43a. the sample sizes for male reported victims of “Rape/Sexual assault/a” contained fewer than ten incidents so estimates made with them are questionable at best. We can assume the majority of the cases reported in this survey are women being raped by men. Males raped suffer from an under reporting problem due to social pressures, but if anyone has solid data on it I’d happily include it in my analysis.

  —-

  Now that you understand the data let’s see how we should interpret it.

  A lot of people have been looking at these numbers and stressing that 37,460 White Women have been RAPED!  (all caps required of course)  But isn’t that a decidedly odd way of looking at it? Yes, it’s absolutely true that the survey estimates that 37,460 white women have been raped by black men. But using that language seems to weirdly “disappear” the 49,613 white women who the survey estimates have been raped by white men. Not to mention the 21,852 white women who the survey estimates have been raped by other races or the 2,564 white women who have been raped in cases where their assailant’s race was unknown or could not be determined. Also not to mention the 36,620 black women raped. Numbers that apparently they deemed irrelevant.

  So some people seem incapable of looking at these numbers and seeing anything other than 37,460 white women raped by black men. So that number must REALLY stand out. If that’s so, we should expect that there must be something really odd, unusual, and decidedly horrible about THAT number.  IT must be the most unexpected piece of the data or else why would they bring it up? And they ask the question how can it be that 33.6% of the rapes of white women are done by black men?!? That’s terrible! Doesn’t it show that black people are more RACIST than white people?  Doesn’t it show that terrible persistence of white oppression!?!! (you can almost hear the implicit underlying – “it’s all because of affirmative action and other evil leftist redistributive policies!”)

  Well for now I make no judgment on the degree of racism for or against white people in this society or the existence or lack there of, of “white oppression”. That’s simply irrelevant to this discussion. It’s a value judgment that does not derive directly from the data analysis. And what we’re talking about is the data analysis here.

  What I look at these numbers and see and what I’d assume a trained statistician or sociologist would see is not how unusual it is that so many white women are being raped by black men, but how unusual it is that so few black women are being raped by white men. Or to be more precise in our language, why is it that so few black women report their assailant to be white? Either those rapes aren’t happening often or black women aren’t reporting them even in an anonymous survey. We can’t tell, just by the data, which is the case. But in either case, it’s very ODD.

  Isn’t that really the strangeness this data is showing? Indeed  it’s substantially more unusual than that. The study seems to be showing that black women by and large are being raped almost entirely by black men only. Huh!? No cases of others? No cases of unknowns? In a segregated society that might be expected, but in an integrated on, that’s just plain WEIRD. Why so different from White women who report substantive numbers in all four categories? The question of whether that’s accurate and if so why on EARTH that’s true is the question the anthropologists and sociologists would want to get to the bottom of.

  Now most people on forums like this wouldn’t bring that up because it would be sooo easy for an enemy to twist into making it seem like I’m arguing for more black women to be raped or some such nonsense interpretation. Obviously it is true that I and I hope most people consider ALL rape to be horrible and indefensible but an honest analysis looks at the actual anomaly and tries to explain it. You don’t just pick the data that makes the point you want to make. It’s not about pitting two sides against each other and saying “oh look blacks rape more whites than whites rape black, score one for the white team!” That’s a ridiculous analysis and I would think any paper in any academic institution in the country that made such a claim or tried to use it to make a broader point about racism in the United States would be thrown out. It’s terrible research.

  Here’s another way to look at it to see why it’s so abnormal. Think of it from a historical perspective.  We don’t have much statistics that go back too far on race and rape but those that we DO have or at least the source I see cited all over the internet (albeit by some decidedly unreliable sources): “Gary D. LaFree, “Male Power and Female Victimization: Toward a Theory of Interracial Rape,” American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 88, No. 2 (September 1982)”  shows that in 1960 3.2% of rapes were black on white and 3.6% were white on black.  I couldn’t verify this source as I don’t have the article mentioned and couldn’t find it online, but if someone else can or find some better historical statistics from primary sources I’d appreciate it. I’ll adjust my analysis accordingly.

  But assuming those statistics are correct. What would you expect to happen between 1960 and the present?  Obviously in 1960 we lived in an exceedingly segregated society. Different bathrooms. Different buses. Different schools. Different neighborhoods. Black people didn’t interact with white people and vice versa at least not to any large extent.  So no surprise that most reported rapes were within the same race. And also no surprise that the number of reported cross racial rapes were roughly similar. It seems then that rapists on average back then had a strong bias for their own race but that there was an equal amount of cross racial rape on both sides. More white on black but not inordinately more or unexpectedly more considering the greater size of the white population as the greater amount of power they held.

  Today things are different. Today’s society is much more integrated, presumptively. And if race distinctions are disappearing,  but RAPE decidedly ISN’T, we SHOULD expect that the people inclined to rape would be equally likely to rape white women as black women. That’s certainly what we would expect if the often touted ideal of people being “color blind” were on the verge of, or anywhere near coming true.

  So… what you should expect to see  in the data is that the percentage of rapes of white women by black men would be roughly equivalent to their greater percentage of the populate. Since 74% of the population describe themselves as “white only” and 13.4% of the population describe themselves as “black only” we should expect a distribution somewhat similar to those numbers adjusted reasonably for continuing segregation since there shouldn’t be any doubt in anyone’s mind that we haven’t wiped that out entirely.  What the data shows instead is a roughly even distribution.  36,620 black women raped and 37,460 white women raped by offenders described as being black.  We can’t do a straight out percentage using those numbers because we don’t know the total population.  But if we assume the number of victims who describe their offender as black who are neither “white only” or “black only” is relatively small we can say that roughly 50.5% of rapes performed by a person reported to be black were done to white women and 49.4% of such rapes were done to black women.

  Is that unusual? Well it’s unusually high in absolute terms. Yes. Black men perform more rapes than White men, 74,080 vs. 49,613 according to this study. That’s a number that is particular unusually high considering the greater size of the white population. This is consistent with other reports that show a greater rate of black crime, in particular violent crime, theft, and drug possession, in general than white crimes of said nature. It’s a point many scholars black and white have been making for a long time and there’s a lot of study being done to get to the bottom of why that is. And most studies have shown it’s directly tied to economic and educational standing. That is to say that white and black crime statistics within the same economic and educational class do not vary widely.

  But if THAT were the point advocates of this study were trying to make, that black people rape more often than white people, the number 37,460 would be irrelevant. The number 74,080 would be the number they’d stress. The distribution of that number is not particularly interesting or unexpected. Not from a historical perspective. It just means that interracial rape has increased as society has become less segregated. Exactly what we should predict.

  But what of the other side? What happened to white rapes of black women? Apparently, rather than increasing, they disappeared. The number dropped from 3.6% to roughly 0.0%. That’s very ODD. It really is. As society became less segregated, nevertheless rapes didn’t become less segregated as least amongst white rapists. And it’s not like white men are such paragons of virtue that they simply stopped raping people. No. They still raped 49,613 white women.

  They simply stopped raping black women.

  It’s particularly unusual when considering that studies have shown that black rapists generally receive larger jail sentences and more severe punishments than white rapists. So it’s not fear of punishment that explains this discrepancy.

  So where do we go from here?  Well the next immediate logical step is to look at MORE than just the 2005 study in order to better understand where the discrepancy lies so we can analyze trends. Here’s the list from 1996 to 2006, the data for this survey that is readily available on the internet.

  Black victim/White offender Percentages:  13.5*, 0.0*, 7.2*, 0.0*, 7.0*, 13.4*, 14.2*, 0.0*, 0.0*, 0.0*, 0.0*
  White victim/Black offender Percentages:  8.8*, 8.0*, 9.9*, 7.3*, 7.0*, 17.1, 13.1*, 15.5*, 8.3*, 33.6, 16.7*

  Here is the link:  http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cvusst.htm  The reports with the appropriate table are under Victims and Offenders.

  Now two things immediately stand out when looking at these numbers. One is that’s an AWFUL lot of *’s!! Recall * means that the sample size contained fewer than 10 respondents so the percentages provided are probably more questionable.  Only two numbers in the entire comparison are not starred. Meaning only twice in the entire history of doing this survey (at least through 96) did they get  a sample size of more than 10 in either direction for interracial rape. In both cases it was for white victim/black offender cases.

  It should also be noted that in 2003 and 2006 the number of black women altogether who reported rape/sexual assault was starred. That should suggest, though it does not prove, a possible under-reporting problem with black women with regards to rape and sexual assault.

  Now these facts would immediately to me put virtually any analysis of interracial rape trends on the basis of this data alone in suspect. Not because the data is wrong or falsified of course but because, there’s just not enough reliable information here. The samples just aren’t large enough to draw any real conclusions about interracial rape and especially not the trends over time. This makes sense because we know people are often reluctant to report rape and the survey was focused on all kinds of violent crimes not just specifically looking for and trying to compile statistics with regard to rape victims.

  But if we are to suspend our disbelief and take these estimates seriously despite the generally small sample sizes what do we see?

  Well it seems interesting that the 2005 numbers were heavily publicized and yet no other years data was chosen, not even 2006. Go back just one year to 2004 and the number of black on white rapes estimated decreases dramatically to approximately 11,192.  In previous and later years the numbers vary wildly. But it should be noted that the methodology changed over the course of the years the survey has been given so the numbers are difficult to directly compare. Also to be fair, 2005 was a year in which there actually were enough respondents to say something about black on white rapes that can’t just be dismissed as statistically insignificant so that might be why it was chosen. The only other year where that happened was 2001. Still… two data points do not a real trend make. And indeed, rather than a trend, the data shows the opposite. Looking at the data, if anything 2005 is the outlier year for the black on white rapes. The percentage for 2005 is more than twice as high as almost any other year where a percentage was reported.

  The white on black rapes are however more interesting. The numbers always are ALWAYS predictions based on fewer than 10 respondents. In 6 out of 11 years the estimate was ZERO percent, and in the last FOUR years the data has been compiled, it’s been ZERO percent every single year! Do you see why, if accurate, this would be the piece of data that should peek a researcher’s interest? It means cases of white men raping black women are either not happening AT ALL or not being reported AT ALL. And that’s precisely NOT what you’d expect the data to show.

  We can speculate for a long time on why this might happen to be the case but without more research and more comprehensive studies we can’t say for sure. There are a lot of possible explanations and I’m curious to see what readers opinions are. I’ll just throw a few probably provocative explanations out there for discussion’s sake.

  It could have to do with social segregation. White men might be avoiding black women or black women might be avoiding white men or might be being more wary of them. If the segregation between black women and white men (or non-black men in general) was substantially greater than the standard amounts of segregation it might explain the phenomena of different rape statistics, albeit though just immediately resulting in the necessity to ask the deeper question of why THAT would be the case.

  OR it could be that there is a deeper stigma against rape in particular amongst black women preventing them from reporting it. Certainly the two starred years for overall black rape reports might suggest that. And that stigma might be GREATER in the case where the perpetrator is white. Again that just leads to the question of why would that be? Well it could be that it is perceived as a sign of weakness amongst black women to be raped by a white man. Or it could be that black women who are raped by white men generally tend to be raped by people who are their bosses or are in a position of power over them and are thus more fearful and reluctant to mention it for fear it might “get out” somehow and ruin their life or career. Or it might be that black women are less trusting of the researchers asking the surveys and unwilling to provide honest personal information. Or it could be some other reason.

  Another possibly explanation is that white men in general are more conscious of or wary of possibly being perceived as racist. Therefore, a white man who is inclined to rape, might consider it a greater risk to them to rape a black woman than a white woman. They might perceive a greater social cost amongst society as a whole and amongst their immediate social group for being caught raping a black woman than raping a white woman.

  Another possible explanation for the lack of white on black rapes could have to do with perceived ideals of what is considered “beauty” since rapes often involve delusions in the minds of the rapists.  Or put another way, it could be an indicator that the kinds of white people who are most likely to perform rapes, perceive black women as undesirable or don’t see any advantage in gaining power over them. That would suggest a subtle racism on the part of white rapists. In contrast the black rapists seem to rape indiscriminately at least based on this survey.

  ASIDE: It would definitely be interesting for someone to examine how these trends compare to interracial relationship trends. For example, anecdotal accounts certainly suggest white male/black female relationships are a LOT less common than black male/white female relationships. How does that relate to these findings?

  Even assuming there’s any relevance at all to asking the question of which group of rapists is the most racist, we definitely CAN’T say is that the black rapists are more racist on the basis of this data. The numbers of black men raping white women simply aren’t high enough relative to the distribution of the population to draw that conclusion.  If we saw all or most black rapists raping white women it would be a different matter entirely. But here in one year we see about 50% and in other years the numbers vary wildly. Even if it were the case it certainly wouldn’t be a very good indicator that black men in general are more racist than white men, or black people than white people. Just as the suggestion I made above with regards to the possible white racism behind the lack of white male rapes of black women doesn’t in any logical way reflect anything on white men in general or white people in general.

  MY point is this. The way this report is being publicized is to suggest that black men are raping an inordinately large number of white women and that proves that there is more racism amongst blacks towards whites than there is the other way around.  Implicit in that assumption is the idea that INTRA-racial rape is somehow more acceptable and more normal than INTER-racial rape. That is, in a “normal” world blacks would only or primarily rape blacks and whites would only or primarily rape whites. That’s the assumption that allows people to say OMG blacks are raping so many white women! They’re soooo racist! Implicitly, there is the idea that in a normal world black men would stick to raping their OWN KIND like civilized white men.

  But that implicit understanding is itself racist. Or at the very least it strikes me as very very twisted. We can’t see from this survey any indication that black men are by and large going out of there way to try and rape white women because they are white or out of vengeance or hatred or to oppress white people or out of a desire to prove their race supreme. Nor can we see any indication that it’s considered more “acceptable” to rape a white woman. Whether or not such phenomena exists (and I highly doubt it does), the data provided, incomplete though it be, gives us no reason to suspect that at all.

  And generally I guess the reason I felt the need to comment on this is not to excuse the horrible fact of the 37,460 rapes and/or sexual assaults and/or threats of either performed by black men on white women, but that I just don’t see the logic in celebrating the fact that white rapists have become so “enlightened” that they no longer rape black females but still feel no qualms about turning their attention toward raping tens of thousands of white females instead.

  That doesn’t strike me as progress at all.

  • 12:09 pm
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